ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 15 October 2016
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today)
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today)
"KAREN" INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND CONTINUES TO THREATEN THE PROVINCE OF CATANDUANES AS IT MOVES CLOSER TOWARDS THE AREA..
•Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.
•Possible occurrence of storm surges along the coastal communities of areas with TCWS #3 and #2 and flashfloods and landslides over all areas with TCWSs.
•Expected to pass close to Polillo Island tomorrow early morning and make landfall over the Quezon-Aurora area later before noon.
•Possible inclusion of Ilocos Sur, Mountain Province and Kalinga to areas with TCWS #1 this afternoon.
•Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the seaboard of Eastern Samar.
•Possible occurrence of storm surges along the coastal communities of areas with TCWS #3 and #2 and flashfloods and landslides over all areas with TCWSs.
•Expected to pass close to Polillo Island tomorrow early morning and make landfall over the Quezon-Aurora area later before noon.
•Possible inclusion of Ilocos Sur, Mountain Province and Kalinga to areas with TCWS #1 this afternoon.
•Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the seaboard of Eastern Samar.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon "KAREN" was located based on all available data including Virac Doppler Radar data at 125 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes(14.3°N, 125.1°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 180 kph.
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 13 kph.
Forecast Positions:
•24 Hour( Tomorrow morning): 90 km Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
•48 Hour(Monday morning):340 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales
•72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 915 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
•96 Hour(Wednesday morning):1,425 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
•120 Hour(Thursday morning):1,755 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
•24 Hour( Tomorrow morning): 90 km Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
•48 Hour(Monday morning):340 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales
•72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 915 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
•96 Hour(Wednesday morning):1,425 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
•120 Hour(Thursday morning):1,755 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS 3(121-170 kph Expected in 18 hours): Catanduanes
TCWS 3(121-170 kph Expected in 18 hours): Catanduanes
•Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
•Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
•Light damage to low risk structures
•Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
•Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
•There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
•Almost all banana plants are downed.
•Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
•Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
•Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
•Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
•Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
•Light damage to low risk structures
•Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
•Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
•There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
•Almost all banana plants are downed.
•Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
•Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
•Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
•Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
TCWS 2 (61-120 kph Expected in 24 hours):Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Aurora and Northern Quezon including Polillo Island.
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
TCWS 1 (30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours):
Luzon: Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate icluding Ticao and Burias Island, Rest of Quezon, Isabela, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, La Union, Benguet and Ifugao
Luzon: Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate icluding Ticao and Burias Island, Rest of Quezon, Isabela, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, La Union, Benguet and Ifugao
Visayas: Northern Samar
Impacts of the wind:
•Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
•Twigs of small trees may be broken.
•Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
•Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
•Twigs of small trees may be broken.
•Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters
The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11AM today.
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